The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't Audiobook

" Its hard to make predictions, especially about the future! Understanding noise from signal is pivotal! "

" Great read, Nate Silver hits a home-run with this one. So many areas of the work are applicable elsewhere. A book to come back to in a years time. "

" Why does a good book on statistics always have too much baseball in it? I had to quit. Too depressing to think of baseball and politics as the same game. "

" While there are many details one can quibble about, Nate Silver gets the big picture right: Bayesian learning is a superior way of obtaining knowledge, especially in a probabilistic field (and it turns out that most fields are probabilistic). Silver wrote a very simple, high-level introduction to Bayesian reasoning, and the book serves more as a motivator to go out and learn from more technical sources, but it serves as an overview of the many fields where these techniques led to major improvements in forecasting and knowledge and the book makes for a quick and pleasant read. "

" Some of this is entertaining, but much of it is way over my head. That in and of itself is not insurmountable, but there are not enough attempts to make this meaningful to the layperson. I was hoping for a conclusion that would explain to me how this was usable in my life, but that didn't happen. While this may help me quantify other people's predictions (don't believe anything a political pundit says - duh) I'm not sure it will help me with my own. "

" With this book, Nate Silver steps out in the Malcolm Gladwell/Michael Lewis vein: exploring some 'unified theory' that can make sense of big issues that can be hard to wrap one's arms around. His essential mantra is "Think probabilistically." Many of us think already think we do, but as Silver demonstrates, even the experts lack rigor. This book is a fascinating tour of some of our era's biggest playing fields--the economy, the weather, national security--that all the while gives all of us tools for seeing the world a little bit more clearly. The author's young age indicates that this is the first of many exceptional books to come. "

" I got bored about half way through and quit. Much of it seems like common sense. "

" Fun read. Gets across quite nicely how predictive modeling works in an accessible and fun way. A bit light on some things I would have liked to see more of and a bit more detailed on some things than I wanted. "

" Didn't finish before I had to return it to the library. Thought the content was interesting for the most part, but often got bogged down in too much detail. Hard to keep the momentum up when the chapters on how hard it is to forecast weather or earthquakes drag on and on. "

" Highly recommend it. Clear examples of the problems and benefits of predictions and probability. "

" Brilliant. An antidote for all the bias, baloney and superstition that are ubiquitous even in so-called "educated" societies like the U.S. This antidote should be ingested by all, especially politicians! "

" I just can't get through this book, there's nothing wrong with it but I guess not my cup of tea. If you're the type that can listen to facts, numbers and statistics for hours and hours on end you'll enjoy it. "

" As far as a book about statistics goes, this was riveting... As an introduction to data analysis and prediction it's good enough for a cocktail party, but not for actually doing anything. "

" This is a must read. Really helps think about how both the media and scientific community presents data. "

" Too much information, not enough story. Difficult to read and is there actually a conclusion? If so, I was not smart enough to sift it out. "

" I love Nate Silver. But, like his columns, the chapters in this book wander all over the place before finding a point. (It was very readable, but I did start/stop/start/stop.) "