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Everything Is Obvious: *Once You Know the Answer Audiobook
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(3.03) - 657 listener ratings
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By understanding how and when common sense fails, we can improve our understanding of the present and better plan for the future. Drawing on the latest scientific research, along with a wealth of historical and contemporary examples, Watts shows how common sense reasoning and history conspire to mislead us into believing that we understand more about the world of human behavior than we do; and in turn, why attempts to predict, manage, or manipulate social and economic systems so often go awry. It seems obvious, for example, that people respond to incentives; yet policy makers and managers alike frequently fail to anticipate how people will respond to the incentives they create. Social trends often seem to be driven by certain influential people; yet marketers have been unable to identify these “influencers” in advance. And although successful products or companies always seem in retrospect to have succeeded because of their unique qualities, predicting the qualities of the next hit product or hot company is notoriously difficult even for experienced professionals. Watts' argument has important implications in politics, business, and marketing, as well as in science and everyday life.
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"Freakonomics has a lot to answer for -- a whole series of books arguing against our pathetic, puny common sense and assumptions about modern life and for probability-based thinking. Drug dealers actually live with their mothers and make less than the minimum wage -- that sort of thing. This book is another in the series, and a good one. The author points out that most of our explanations for why things are or why they happen are circular. We say, for example, that the Mona Lisa is a magnificent painting because it has the attributes of a magnificent painting. And predicting freak events is virtually impossible, because we don't know the terms of a unique event until it happens. The author argues that it's better to track what's in front of us -- current reality --and react quickly to that, rather than to try to predict what's going to happen."
— Nick (5 out of 5 stars)
Everything Is Obvious Listener Reviews
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" Everything is Obvious is exactly the kind of book that makes people uncomfortable. And that's exactly why everyone should read it. Watts shows that we don't know nearly as much as we think we do. Written in a much more accessible style than [[ASIN:0141034599 The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable]], Everything is Obvious should be required reading for leaders of industry and government. In a nutshell, it shows that we don't know jack--and why. "
— Phil, 2/19/2014 -
" To be honest I was a little disappointed. I think it's due to Daniel Kahneman. DK's work covers so much and had so much new thinking in it that it's difficult for any one to compete. "
— Kevan, 2/16/2014 -
" Magnificent! A well research and super interesting book about what makes things popular and why. It's not obvious "
— John, 2/7/2014 -
" Definitely one of those interesting books. Has a point that you remember. The entire premise of the book is very interesting, that common sense is not really that common, and that it's the worst way to make decisions for big entities like business and government, how backwards our reasoning can be, and how that affects society and its study, sociology. I would recommend it to anyone who wants to have major revelations. "
— Irene, 2/4/2014 -
" A great eye-opener. The world is messy. "
— Risto, 1/17/2014 -
" provoking. a thoughtful read "
— Bruce, 1/10/2014 -
" The author is a physicist who became a sociologist and I like his cross-disciplinary thinking. "
— Amy, 12/31/2013 -
" Really deserves 3.5 stars, but I can't do fractions apparently. It's interesting material and presented in an easy to understand manner, but it's not a book that will keep you hooked for hours on end. "
— Matt, 11/7/2013 -
" This is merely a compendium of about 5 other books I've already read. Who thought this would be a good idea to write this? There's nothing new about it at all. "
— Jon, 11/3/2013 -
" The author brings out many issues with commonsense. He asks questions that I have often asked myself - of course there are no definitive answers (yet) since it is almost impossible to replay history with a different random seed. The book is extremely interesting. Worth a read. "
— Prak, 10/29/2013 -
" Fascinating look at common sense and influence and why people do the things they do (or rather, how we actually have no idea why). Dragged a little toward the end, but utterly thought provoking and provides many great points of conversation and further thought. "
— Allison, 10/17/2013 -
" Brilliant - one of THE best, inspiring, well-written, mind-altering and life-changing books I have had the privilege of reading. All I can say is: Just READ it! "
— Amanda, 1/22/2013 -
" This book was on the verge of being over my head throughout. Don't let the cover fool you -- it's more science-y than about common sense. "
— Stephanie, 1/18/2013 -
" This is one of the most engrossing non-fiction books I have read in a long time. For me, at least, it was a real page turner and I learned an a lot that I will be putting to good use very soon. "
— Simon, 11/25/2012 -
" Currently on page 68 "
— Qu, 3/18/2012 -
" Watts is the unusual combination of systems engineer and sociologist, so turning him loose on received wisdom yields entertaining and illustrative examples of the perils of "common sense" defaults and inductive reasoning, with some extremely satisfying Malcolm Gladwell thrashing in between. "
— Margaret, 1/20/2012 -
" Enjoyable breakdown of all the reason common sense fails in many of our real-world decision making problems. Not only why it is rare...but all of the ways it goes wrong. "
— Mike, 1/2/2012 -
" Well written, about the ways that common-sense doesn't really apply to complex social situations - but why we cling to erroneous common-sense explanations anyway. "
— Steve, 9/29/2011 -
" Another business book to chew through | Contains some good ideas regarding our ability to predict and have foresight | Highly informed by sociologists, political scientists, and economists. "
— FATHOM+HATCH, 6/10/2011 -
" A good easy-to-read overview of a sociologist's exploration of the strengths and weaknesses of common sense, with additional insights into how social media and the Internet are revolutionizing sociology. "
— Ralph, 5/8/2011 -
" This book was on the verge of being over my head throughout. Don't let the cover fool you -- it's more science-y than about common sense. "
— Stephanie, 4/19/2011 -
" Awesome book about unpredictability. Last chapter derails a bit. "
— Henry, 4/11/2011
About Duncan J. Watts
Duncan J. Watts, a professor of sociology at Columbia University, is a principal research scientist at Yahoo! Research. A former officer in the Royal Australian Navy, he holds a PhD in theoretical and applied mechanics from Cornell University. He is the author of Six Degrees: The Science of a Connected Age and Everything Is Obvious. He lives in New York City.